Demographics

0
(N=8)
0.25
(N=4)
0.5
(N=12)
0.75
(N=5)
1
(N=7)
Overall
(N=36)
age
Mean (SD) 44.8 (12.0) 45.3 (8.22) 36.3 (11.5) 47.0 (19.1) 32.7 (10.3) 40.0 (12.9)
Median [Min, Max] 47.0 [23.0, 59.0] 45.5 [36.0, 54.0] 34.0 [19.0, 53.0] 46.0 [19.0, 70.0] 35.0 [19.0, 45.0] 40.5 [19.0, 70.0]
race
Hispanic/Latinx 1 (12.5%) 0 (0%) 1 (8.3%) 0 (0%) 1 (14.3%) 3 (8.3%)
White 7 (87.5%) 4 (100%) 7 (58.3%) 4 (80.0%) 4 (57.1%) 26 (72.2%)
Asian 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (8.3%) 0 (0%) 1 (14.3%) 2 (5.6%)
Black or African-American 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 2 (16.7%) 1 (20.0%) 1 (14.3%) 4 (11.1%)
Other 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (8.3%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (2.8%)
gender
Man 5 (62.5%) 2 (50.0%) 7 (58.3%) 1 (20.0%) 1 (14.3%) 16 (44.4%)
Woman 3 (37.5%) 2 (50.0%) 5 (41.7%) 4 (80.0%) 6 (85.7%) 20 (55.6%)
party
Democratic 3 (37.5%) 2 (50.0%) 5 (41.7%) 3 (60.0%) 3 (42.9%) 16 (44.4%)
Independent 3 (37.5%) 2 (50.0%) 5 (41.7%) 2 (40.0%) 2 (28.6%) 14 (38.9%)
Republican 2 (25.0%) 0 (0%) 2 (16.7%) 0 (0%) 2 (28.6%) 6 (16.7%)
0
(N=60)
0.25
(N=58)
0.5
(N=56)
0.75
(N=67)
1
(N=68)
Overall
(N=309)
age
Mean (SD) 38.7 (12.6) 41.9 (12.2) 36.8 (14.4) 37.2 (13.0) 37.2 (13.0) 38.3 (13.1)
Median [Min, Max] 36.5 [18.0, 69.0] 39.0 [21.0, 68.0] 32.5 [18.0, 72.0] 34.0 [18.0, 73.0] 34.0 [18.0, 72.0] 35.0 [18.0, 73.0]
race
American Indian or Alaska Native 1 (1.7%) 0 (0%) 2 (3.6%) 4 (6.0%) 1 (1.5%) 8 (2.6%)
Asian 5 (8.3%) 4 (6.9%) 6 (10.7%) 6 (9.0%) 4 (5.9%) 25 (8.1%)
Black or African-American 4 (6.7%) 3 (5.2%) 4 (7.1%) 6 (9.0%) 5 (7.4%) 22 (7.1%)
Hispanic/Latinx 1 (1.7%) 4 (6.9%) 3 (5.4%) 3 (4.5%) 6 (8.8%) 17 (5.5%)
White 49 (81.7%) 46 (79.3%) 40 (71.4%) 48 (71.6%) 51 (75.0%) 234 (75.7%)
Other 0 (0%) 1 (1.7%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (0.3%)
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 1 (1.8%) 0 (0%) 1 (1.5%) 2 (0.6%)
gender
Another gender not listed here 2 (3.3%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 2 (0.6%)
Man 22 (36.7%) 23 (39.7%) 23 (41.1%) 28 (41.8%) 39 (57.4%) 135 (43.7%)
Woman 36 (60.0%) 34 (58.6%) 30 (53.6%) 38 (56.7%) 26 (38.2%) 164 (53.1%)
Non-binary 0 (0%) 1 (1.7%) 3 (5.4%) 1 (1.5%) 1 (1.5%) 6 (1.9%)
Prefer not to answer 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 2 (2.9%) 2 (0.6%)
party
Democratic 26 (43.3%) 28 (48.3%) 31 (55.4%) 34 (50.7%) 36 (52.9%) 155 (50.2%)
Independent 21 (35.0%) 16 (27.6%) 17 (30.4%) 17 (25.4%) 23 (33.8%) 94 (30.4%)
Republican 13 (21.7%) 14 (24.1%) 8 (14.3%) 16 (23.9%) 9 (13.2%) 60 (19.4%)

Opinion Learning

Learning task by party

Stimuli similarity

## Type III Analysis of Variance Table with Satterthwaite's method
##                             Sum Sq Mean Sq NumDF   DenDF F value    Pr(>F)    
## Deviant_threshold           235242   58810     4   329.4  178.34 < 2.2e-16 ***
## pairings                    660008  660008     1   145.8 2001.43 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Deviant_threshold:pairings 1483642  370910     4 10733.2 1124.76 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## $emmeans
## pairings = par,stim:
##  Deviant_threshold emmean   SE  df asymp.LCL asymp.UCL
##  0                   84.5 1.49 Inf      81.6      87.4
##  0.25                52.1 1.51 Inf      49.2      55.1
##  0.5                 42.6 1.54 Inf      39.6      45.6
##  0.75                34.3 1.41 Inf      31.5      37.1
##  1                   15.3 1.40 Inf      12.6      18.1
## 
## pairings = stim,stim:
##  Deviant_threshold emmean   SE  df asymp.LCL asymp.UCL
##  0                   87.3 1.31 Inf      84.8      89.9
##  0.25                51.9 1.33 Inf      49.3      54.5
##  0.5                 47.9 1.35 Inf      45.3      50.6
##  0.75                51.2 1.24 Inf      48.8      53.6
##  1                   87.5 1.23 Inf      85.1      89.9
## 
## Degrees-of-freedom method: asymptotic 
## Confidence level used: 0.95 
## 
## $contrasts
## pairings = par,stim:
##  contrast                                      estimate   SE  df z.ratio
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold0.25      32.403 2.12 Inf  15.317
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold0.5       41.959 2.13 Inf  19.656
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold0.75      50.232 2.04 Inf  24.598
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold1         69.190 2.04 Inf  33.999
##  Deviant_threshold0.25 - Deviant_threshold0.5     9.556 2.15 Inf   4.440
##  Deviant_threshold0.25 - Deviant_threshold0.75   17.829 2.06 Inf   8.653
##  Deviant_threshold0.25 - Deviant_threshold1      36.787 2.05 Inf  17.914
##  Deviant_threshold0.5 - Deviant_threshold0.75     8.273 2.08 Inf   3.977
##  Deviant_threshold0.5 - Deviant_threshold1       27.231 2.07 Inf  13.134
##  Deviant_threshold0.75 - Deviant_threshold1      18.958 1.98 Inf   9.585
##  p.value
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
##   0.0001
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
##   0.0007
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
## 
## pairings = stim,stim:
##  contrast                                      estimate   SE  df z.ratio
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold0.25      35.477 1.86 Inf  19.027
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold0.5       39.409 1.88 Inf  20.947
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold0.75      36.150 1.80 Inf  20.086
##  Deviant_threshold0 - Deviant_threshold1         -0.154 1.79 Inf  -0.086
##  Deviant_threshold0.25 - Deviant_threshold0.5     3.932 1.90 Inf   2.073
##  Deviant_threshold0.25 - Deviant_threshold0.75    0.673 1.82 Inf   0.371
##  Deviant_threshold0.25 - Deviant_threshold1     -35.631 1.81 Inf -19.687
##  Deviant_threshold0.5 - Deviant_threshold0.75    -3.259 1.83 Inf  -1.778
##  Deviant_threshold0.5 - Deviant_threshold1      -39.563 1.83 Inf -21.652
##  Deviant_threshold0.75 - Deviant_threshold1     -36.304 1.74 Inf -20.828
##  p.value
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
##   1.0000
##   0.2319
##   0.9960
##   <.0001
##   0.3866
##   <.0001
##   <.0001
## 
## Degrees-of-freedom method: asymptotic 
## P value adjustment: tukey method for comparing a family of 5 estimates

Stimuli similarity by party

Party Idenitification

## Type III Analysis of Variance Table with Satterthwaite's method
##                         Sum Sq Mean Sq NumDF DenDF F value    Pr(>F)    
## Deviant_threshold       497.74  124.43     4   304  1.2257   0.29986    
## time                   1587.61 1587.61     1   304 15.6386 9.545e-05 ***
## Deviant_threshold:time  936.42  234.10     4   304  2.3060   0.05825 .  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## $emmeans
## Deviant_threshold = 0:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   72.2 3.42 351     65.4     78.9  21.066  <.0001
##  after    72.6 3.42 351     65.8     79.3  21.193  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   67.2 3.48 351     60.4     74.1  19.293  <.0001
##  after    63.9 3.48 351     57.0     70.7  18.338  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   65.2 3.55 351     58.3     72.2  18.405  <.0001
##  after    61.3 3.55 351     54.3     68.3  17.292  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   67.7 3.24 351     61.3     74.0  20.875  <.0001
##  after    60.6 3.24 351     54.3     67.0  18.706  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   65.8 3.22 351     59.5     72.2  20.460  <.0001
##  after    63.6 3.22 351     57.3     69.9  19.774  <.0001
## 
## Degrees-of-freedom method: satterthwaite 
## Confidence level used: 0.95 
## 
## $contrasts
## Deviant_threshold = 0:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after   -0.433 1.84 304   -4.053     3.19  -0.236  0.8139
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    3.328 1.87 304   -0.354     7.01   1.779  0.0763
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    3.946 1.90 304    0.200     7.69   2.073  0.0391
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    7.030 1.74 304    3.604    10.46   4.038  0.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    2.206 1.73 304   -1.194     5.61   1.277  0.2027
## 
## Degrees-of-freedom method: satterthwaite 
## Confidence level used: 0.95

Party identification by party

## Type III Analysis of Variance Table with Satterthwaite's method
##                               Sum Sq Mean Sq NumDF DenDF F value    Pr(>F)    
## Deviant_threshold             841.44  210.36     4   294  2.0702 0.0847307 .  
## time                         1302.11 1302.11     1   294 12.8142 0.0004023 ***
## party                        2863.48 1431.74     2   294 14.0899 1.434e-06 ***
## Deviant_threshold:time        916.85  229.21     4   294  2.2557 0.0632019 .  
## Deviant_threshold:party       736.25   92.03     8   294  0.9057 0.5119955    
## time:party                    266.57  133.29     2   294  1.3117 0.2709421    
## Deviant_threshold:time:party  661.73   82.72     8   294  0.8140 0.5906895    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## $emmeans
## Deviant_threshold = 0, party = Democratic:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   78.3 5.01 343     68.4     88.1  15.616  <.0001
##  after    79.7 5.01 343     69.9     89.6  15.907  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25, party = Democratic:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   73.6 4.83 343     64.1     83.1  15.247  <.0001
##  after    69.0 4.83 343     59.5     78.5  14.293  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5, party = Democratic:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   70.9 4.59 343     61.8     79.9  15.439  <.0001
##  after    65.8 4.59 343     56.8     74.9  14.343  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75, party = Democratic:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   75.1 4.38 343     66.5     83.7  17.138  <.0001
##  after    69.7 4.38 343     61.1     78.3  15.903  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1, party = Democratic:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   68.1 4.26 343     59.7     76.4  15.977  <.0001
##  after    67.5 4.26 343     59.1     75.9  15.853  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0, party = Independent:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   59.6 5.58 343     48.6     70.6  10.690  <.0001
##  after    58.4 5.58 343     47.5     69.4  10.476  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25, party = Independent:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   52.4 6.39 343     39.9     65.0   8.207  <.0001
##  after    49.8 6.39 343     37.2     62.4   7.796  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5, party = Independent:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   56.8 6.20 343     44.6     69.0   9.167  <.0001
##  after    54.0 6.20 343     41.8     66.2   8.712  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75, party = Independent:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   61.9 6.20 343     49.7     74.1   9.993  <.0001
##  after    47.2 6.20 343     35.0     59.4   7.611  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1, party = Independent:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   56.9 5.33 343     46.4     67.4  10.671  <.0001
##  after    52.3 5.33 343     41.8     62.8   9.815  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0, party = Republican:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   80.2 7.09 343     66.2     94.1  11.308  <.0001
##  after    81.2 7.09 343     67.2     95.1  11.449  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25, party = Republican:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   71.2 6.83 343     57.8     84.6  10.426  <.0001
##  after    69.6 6.83 343     56.2     83.1  10.196  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5, party = Republican:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   61.4 9.04 343     43.6     79.1   6.792  <.0001
##  after    59.2 9.04 343     41.5     77.0   6.557  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75, party = Republican:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   57.9 6.39 343     45.3     70.4   9.058  <.0001
##  after    55.6 6.39 343     43.1     68.2   8.706  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1, party = Republican:
##  time   emmean   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before   79.8 8.52 343     63.0     96.5   9.364  <.0001
##  after    76.9 8.52 343     60.1     93.6   9.025  <.0001
## 
## Degrees-of-freedom method: satterthwaite 
## Confidence level used: 0.95 
## 
## $contrasts
## Deviant_threshold = 0, party = Democratic:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after   -1.462 2.80 294 -6.96387     4.04  -0.523  0.6015
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25, party = Democratic:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    4.607 2.69 294 -0.69504     9.91   1.710  0.0883
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5, party = Democratic:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    5.032 2.56 294 -0.00684    10.07   1.965  0.0503
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75, party = Democratic:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    5.412 2.44 294  0.60011    10.22   2.214  0.0276
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1, party = Democratic:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    0.528 2.38 294 -4.14831     5.20   0.222  0.8244
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0, party = Independent:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    1.190 3.11 294 -4.93196     7.31   0.383  0.7022
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25, party = Independent:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    2.625 3.56 294 -4.38913     9.64   0.737  0.4620
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5, party = Independent:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    2.824 3.46 294 -3.98117     9.63   0.817  0.4148
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75, party = Independent:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after   14.765 3.46 294  7.96000    21.57   4.270  <.0001
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1, party = Independent:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    4.565 2.97 294 -1.28497    10.42   1.536  0.1257
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0, party = Republican:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after   -1.000 3.95 294 -8.78148     6.78  -0.253  0.8005
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.25, party = Republican:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    1.571 3.81 294 -5.92699     9.07   0.412  0.6803
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.5, party = Republican:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    2.125 5.04 294 -7.79448    12.04   0.422  0.6736
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 0.75, party = Republican:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    2.250 3.56 294 -4.76413     9.26   0.631  0.5283
## 
## Deviant_threshold = 1, party = Republican:
##  contrast       estimate   SE  df lower.CL upper.CL t.ratio p.value
##  before - after    2.889 4.75 294 -6.46328    12.24   0.608  0.5437
## 
## Degrees-of-freedom method: satterthwaite 
## Confidence level used: 0.95

Prediction Confidence

Prediction Confidence, by correctness about last opinion

Overall
(N=309)
predcorrect
Yes 161 (52.1%)
No 148 (47.9%)
0
(N=60)
0.25
(N=58)
0.5
(N=56)
0.75
(N=67)
1
(N=68)
Overall
(N=309)
predcorrect
Yes 35 (58.3%) 31 (53.4%) 33 (58.9%) 29 (43.3%) 33 (48.5%) 161 (52.1%)
No 25 (41.7%) 27 (46.6%) 23 (41.1%) 38 (56.7%) 35 (51.5%) 148 (47.9%)

Idenitification to Stimuli

#Scatter plot by Party Id (Post minus Pre)

#Cluster analysis